The US labor market is undergoing rapid evolution, with significant changes in how people work and the nature of work itself. The COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated these transformations, leading to shifts in job roles and the adoption of automation technologies. One key technology that is shaping the future of work is generative AI, which has advanced natural language capabilities and the ability to automate a wide range of tasks.
During the pandemic, the US labor market witnessed a staggering 8.6 million occupational shifts, which is 50 percent more than the previous three-year period. Many of these shifts involved people leaving occupations in food services, in-person sales, and office support for different roles. By 2030, up to 30 percent of the hours currently worked across the US economy could be automated, largely due to the influence of generative AI. However, instead of eliminating jobs, generative AI is expected to enhance the way professionals in STEM, creative, business, and legal fields work. Automation’s biggest impact is likely to be on other job categories, such as office support, customer service, and food service employment.
In addition to automation, other factors such as federal investment in climate and infrastructure initiatives and long-term structural shifts will also impact labor demand. The transition to a net-zero economy will result in a shift from oil, gas, and automotive manufacturing to green industries, resulting in a modest net gain in employment. Infrastructure projects will increase demand in the construction sector, which is already facing a shortage of nearly 400,000 workers. Furthermore, the aging population will drive increased demand for healthcare workers, and the growth of e-commerce will lead to gains in transportation services.
By 2030, an additional 12 million occupational transitions may be required. As people leave shrinking occupations, the economy is expected to shift towards higher-wage jobs. Workers in lower-wage jobs are up to 14 times more likely to need to change occupations than those in highest-wage positions, and additional skills will be necessary for successful transitions. Women are also more likely to need to move into new occupations compared to men.
To adapt to these changes, the United States will need to invest in workforce development on a larger scale and adopt more inclusive hiring approaches. Employers will need to focus on hiring for skills and competencies rather than credentials, recruit from overlooked populations (such as rural workers and people with disabilities), and provide training that keeps up with evolving needs.
The impacts of generative AI and automation are significant, but they are not expected to completely eliminate jobs. Instead, these technologies will reshape the composition of labor demand, leading to shifts in the occupational mix. Occupations in healthcare, STEM, management, and transportation are expected to see growth, while office support, customer service, and food service roles may decline. It is crucial to address occupational and geographic mismatches and provide workers with the necessary training to succeed in the jobs of the future.
FAQs
Q: Will generative AI eliminate jobs?
A: Generative AI and automation technologies are expected to reshape the composition of labor demand but not eliminate jobs entirely. While some roles may see a decline, occupations in healthcare, STEM, management, and transportation are expected to grow. The key is to provide workers with the necessary skills and training to adapt to these changes.
Q: How will the transition to a net-zero economy impact employment?
A: The transition to a net-zero economy will lead to a shift in employment away from oil, gas, and automotive manufacturing and towards green industries. This transition is expected to result in a modest net gain in employment. However, the location and required skills for these jobs may be different from the current landscape.
Conclusion
The future of work in America is being shaped by a multitude of factors, including generative AI, automation, federal investment, and long-term structural trends. While automation, fueled by generative AI, is expected to impact the labor market, jobs are not expected to be completely eradicated. Instead, the mix of occupations will change, with a shift towards higher-wage jobs and a decline in certain roles such as office support, customer service, and food service. It is crucial to invest in workforce development, adopt inclusive hiring practices, and provide workers with the necessary skills to succeed in the evolving job market. By embracing these changes, businesses and workers can navigate the future of work and drive economic growth.
